tao – WWW.BLOCKCAST.CC

Text | Qiu Xiangyu

Original title: Bitcoin breaks 20,000, an unimaginable surge!

The market was caught off guard! On the evening of December 16, Bitcoin finally broke through $20,000. Babbitt 8 asked the big event to quickly organize “Bitcoin breaks 20,000, and it’s unimaginable!” 》Live, the guests invited Tao Rongqi, the well-known KOL super king and X-Order founder, to witness history and look forward to the future.

The following are exciting content:

Do you expect the market to break 20,000 yuan tonight?

Tao Rongqi:

My psychological expectation is that the price of Bitcoin will exceed 20,000 at the end of January or February next year. Because from May to July this year, it took three months to wear down 10,000. It only took about one month to break through 20,000 this time, but it was actually quite short. But anyway, a breakthrough was made. A breakthrough is a good thing. You can be happy.

Why did Bitcoin break 20,000 at this time tonight?

Super gentleman:

I’m the Kezhouqiujian faction. December 17 is a very good day. If you turn to December 17 of the past few years, Bitcoin has performed very well. Therefore, Bitcoin’s performance today has further verified the advanced nature of the Kezhouqiujian School.

20,000 is not a big resistance. Combined with the previous trend, 10,000-13,000 is the real strong resistance. Why did it break through at this time? It is a historical precedent. I also like to look at the past. In December 2016, Bitcoin also broke through the previous high, which was the previous high of 7000 RMB. After breaking through the previous high, he was smashed down by 30 to 40%, and then immediately came back. Therefore, there is a precedent for a breakthrough in the bull market in December. Of course, the top often occurs in December, for example, December in 2017, for example, December in 2013 is at the top, so it is easy to break through or cause the top in December.

Why did Bitcoin soar this year?

Tao Rongqi:

According to the price at the beginning of the year, Bitcoin’s rise is not that exaggerated. It was about 7,000 at the beginning of the year, and now it is 20,000, which is basically about three times that. If you look at the price at the beginning of last year and the high point last year, the price at the beginning of last year was about three or four thousand, and the high point last year was 13,000, which is probably more than four times higher. In fact, 4 times this year has not risen. What kind of force pulled Bitcoin? In fact, since last year, mainstream views have recognized that the price of Bitcoin has nothing to do with Chinese capital. Now we say that the price of buying or selling is mainly based on coinbase.

Of course, this need not be surprised. The reason is very simple. Chinese forces can no longer participate in it. Funding in and out is very troublesome, and there is not much room for maneuvering inside.

I have written on Weibo for 7 years from 2013 to this year. After the past 6 years, I may spend a lot of time on Weibo. I will spend more time on Twitter this year. Why? Because it is now dominated by foreign countries, there is actually no high-quality content output in China.

If you are active on Twitter, you will find that more and more Wall Street institutions are entering Bitcoin, and you will feel this change deeply.

In 2013, we were fantasizing about buying coins on Wall Street, buying coins on PayPal, and Amazon accepting Bitcoin as payment. At the time, we all thought it was an illusion. Everyone brags about it. In fact, we don’t have much confidence in what time. to accompish this goal.

Seven years later, we have seen step by step become reality. Wall Street institutions are indeed buying Bitcoin, and we can buy GBTC on US stocks. PayPal is really able to buy Bitcoin. Another well-known video website accepted Bitcoin as a payment channel.

When this fact is placed in front of you, you will be very emotional, that is to say, I am finally right. In fact, the rise of Bitcoin is a very natural thing.

The price of Bitcoin now has little to do with domestic prices. Institutions only buy bitcoins, and then bitcoins rise more and more. The market that everyone expects to supplement the rise of mainstream currencies has not come. Our domestic currency users may have more mainstream currencies or altcoins.

Combining the global macro-political and economic situation to talk about the inevitable reasons for Bitcoin’s rise this year

Tao Rongqi:

The most important reason is that the U.S. dollar or global central banks are releasing water. We can see that every bear market comes because of interest rate hikes. Every bull market comes because of interest rate cuts or even more exaggerated QE.

We turned our eyes back to the 18-year bear market. It is obvious that the Fed raised interest rates that year. By 19, it has not raised interest rates much, so you see it started to rise. This year, not only did not cut interest rates, but started to send money frantically, driving up the Nasdaq stock market frantically. There is really no way.

For Bitcoin, under the big macro, it is actually very late to break through the previous high. If you look at all the mainstream assets in the world, gold has broken the previous high, and the A-share CSI 300 index has also broken the previous high. Needless to say, Nasdaq has broken the previous high. Bitcoin, which is only a digital currency, has not broken the previous high, which in itself is a very strange thing. Bitcoin is the last mainstream asset to break the previous high. It broke the previous high in the last one, and may also rush higher.

What is the future trend of Bitcoin?

Tao Rongqi:

This time breaking 20,000 is more anxious, if you go to the 5th line or weekly or monthly line, it is still more anxious. Compared with the process of breaking 10,000, it basically just went up after a short rest. Whether it will directly reach 30,000, most people will think that they will go up first, and then step back. Personally, when I look at the price of Bitcoin now, I pay more attention to these indicators of futures. For example, is the speculative component (and the spot premium) in futures more or less? If the speculative component of futures is crazy, you must pay attention to risks.

If you put it in the futures, how much you have tortured the confidence of the bulls before, you can make up for how high the rise will be later. This is particularly obvious when placed two months ago. Two months ago, it went from 12,000 times to less than 10,000. The process actually wiped out most of the confidence of the bulls. Will it come down again after this time? I think there is a probability. I even think it will be soon. It may be the end of this month, after Christmas.

My personal expectation is to be around US$50,000 to US$70,000 next year. In fact, it is relatively conservative, because it has increased by 10 times according to the trend in 17 years. If it fails to reach 50,000, I think there may be some problems in the market.

I am the Kezhouqiujian faction, and the current trend is from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017. But I don’t have much operation. I am still a farmer, slowly digging DeFi, and then changing to more bitcoins. In fact, I rarely do trades, and I don’t know how much I can rise to. I hope the more the better.

It has reached a record high of 20,000 US dollars. How should retail investors operate?

Super gentleman:

I am also a retail investor myself, so I fetch my wool and hoard Bitcoin.

I want to share with you one of my personal ways that I can definitely make money. There are two to three times a year. In a certain period of time, a large number of people will liquidate their positions in futures, and the liquidation will reach the negative premium of bitmex for a month. Most people’s money has been laundered. Once this happens, you just need to buy it.

What else is worth paying attention to besides Bitcoin?

Tao Rongqi:

I think the US stock market will end next year, and Bitcoin will skyrocket, but will it follow the US stock market? I don’t know. Next year, some domestic assets, such as stocks and real estate in Shenzhen, will also be stable assets. Our slogan is long China, long crypto.

At present, Bitcoin and Ethereum are favored, and another very important track is stable currency. It is possible for stable currency projects to rank in the top three.

Is it a bull market now?

Tao Rongqi:

It depends on what coin you have. Reappearing the state where garbage can go to the sky at the end of 2017 and early 2018, may not be there again. The market will become smarter. The world is the same, good is better, bad is worse. Institutions are actually smarter than retail investors. They will get together to hoard bitcoins. If there is a better target next year, they will get together to hoard them, hoard them until they die, and pull it to a high level. Some other things may disappear slowly without being noticed.