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LINK prepares for potential breakout after a mid-week bounce but that’s not all (www.blockcast.cc)

Chainlink’s native cryptocurrency LINK might be the next candidate for a major bullish move. It was among the top trending cryptocurrencies at press time and its price action might be headed for a pattern breakout. LINK managed to overcome the bearish doubt in the first half of the week in favor of a strong bullish […]

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Why Algorand rally is unable to break above mid-range resistance (www.blockcast.cc)

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion. Over the past couple of days, Algorand [ALGO] has posted gains of nearly 10%. From $0.3 to $0.328, ALGO has moved at the same time Bitcoin bounced from the $20.8k level to reach $23k. […]

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Dogecoin [DOGE]: Mid-range flipped into demand zone could mean… (www.blockcast.cc)

Dogecoin price shows an interesting development after its breakout from a bullish setup on 23 March. The initial move was volatile, however, DOGE seems to be stuck consolidating, hinting at an explosive, especially when on-chain metrics show that whales are increasing their rate of accumulation. A higher recovery on the cards? Dogecoin price action from […]

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This might be a good sign for Bitcoin’s mid-term trajectory (www.blockcast.cc)

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[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Mid-term prospects mixed with Bitcoin’s entering a short-term rebound (www.blockcast.cc)

Aim Rich Cryptocurrency Investment Information (2021.3.2)
<Figure 1=Market trend score as of 14:00 on the 2nd (100 points, left)/Market rise/fall intensity (right)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>

Bitcoin price, which seemed to recover $50,000 at once, is weakening after a day of rising. It seems to be a short-term sale digestion process as it is gradually being pushed down while reducing the amount of trading, but investors’ sentiment in the downtrend is uncomfortable because the plunge a few days ago.

It is interpreted that the rise in bitcoin price is due to the reviving the attractiveness of risky assets as the rise in US Treasury yields subsided, and the positive movements and comments of major institutions related to bitcoin continued. In addition, Citigroup’s strategists said in their report that Bitcoin will play a larger role in the global financial system, and that it could become the currency of choice for international trade in the next few years also seems to have played a positive role. However, there are also increasing opinions of experts who believe that this uptrend will not last long. (Refer to’Analysis of major media and market experts’ on page 6)

In the US New York Stock Market, the rise in US Treasury yields subsided, and expectations for economic recovery outpaced inflation concerns, all of the three indexes rose the most in a few months. The Dow Index was almost 4 months, the S&P 500 was 9 months, and the Nasdaq 1 month. Recorded the maximum daily rise in the. On the 1st (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average (Dow Index) surged 603.14 points (1.95%) compared to the previous length, closing at 31535.51.

As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $31,745.60, the 24-hour trading volume is about $54.5 billion, and the market cap is about $96.66 billion. The total cryptocurrency market cap is $1.483 trillion, and the Bitcoin market cap share is 60.9%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 1.72% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased by 1.58% compared to the previous day, making altcoins stronger than bitcoin, and bitcoin’s market cap decreased by 1.81% compared to the previous day. Its share decreased by 0.09% compared to the previous day, which means that altcoin’s decline is somewhat less than that of bitcoin in the market as a whole.

<Figure 2=Status of Real-Time Cryptocurrency Market/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that started with a strong rise turned to weakness in about 30 minutes, and attempted to turn upward as a buying trend was introduced, but it was analyzed that the decline also increased as the selling trend spread throughout the market. . W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -2.44%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -2.58%, WLC, an index focused on large stocks, is -2.47%, and WMC, a medium-sized stock-oriented index- The WSC, a 2.21% small stock-oriented index, recorded -1.81%.

<Figure 3=Longs/Shorts cumulative trading volume ratio of major exchanges in the past 24 hours/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>
<Table 1 = Longs/Shorts trading volume ratio of major exchanges as of 14:00 on the 2nd/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume for the last 24 hours was 51%:49%, and the buy ratio was high, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was analyzed to be strong on average. . (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis for bitcoin futures was around +1.0, and the basis for Ethereum futures was around +1.85, maintaining the contango status. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. March futures traded at $49,057.5, an increase of $187.5 (+0.38%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price fell 1.30% from the previous day to 557,000 won, Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.01% to 1.769,000 won, and Polkadot (DOT) rose 1.06% to 40,950. Hit the circle. Ripple (XRP) fell 2.17% from the previous day to 495 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell 0.26% to 568,000 won, Ada (ADA) fell 5.08% to 1,400 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) fell 2.86% to 475 won. , Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 32,910 won, a 4.34% increase from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 166,650 won, down 1.72%.

<Figure 4=Upbit BTC/KRW Daily Chart/Data=Trading View>
<Figure 5=Top 10 Coin Price (As of 14:00 on March 2nd)/Image=Coin Market Cap>

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is on the rise of 8 out of the top 10 market caps as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $48,732.57, up 5.30% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) rose 7.67% to $1,551.92, and Cardano (ADA) fell 5.36% to $1.20. Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 10.39% from the previous day to $246.40, Polkadot (DOT) rose by 7.14% to $35.91, Ripple (XRP) rose by 2.98% to $0.4329, and Chainlink (LINK) rose by 14.79% to $28.75. Litecoin (LTC) rose 3.89% to $172.52, and Stellar (XLM) rose 3.95% to $0.4179.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>

Market experts disagree over bitcoin prices, which have been adjusted in recent days, whether this is a small price correction or the beginning of a deeper decline. Ascendants argue that the adjustment will not be long, based on the on-chain indicators, unit prices that have recently been accumulating in large quantities by institutions, and their steady buying trend. However, analysts who are concerned about mediation are usually based on technical analysis. Technically, it is clear that this is an overbought period, and issues related to U.S. Treasury bonds are likely to adversely affect the bitcoin price, so conservative response is necessary.

(Positive opinion)

① Glassnode co-founder and on-chain analyst Rafael Schultze-Kraft said, “Recently, illiquid bitcoin out of the circulating supply of bitcoin has surpassed the circulating supply for the first time in three years. Currently, 14.5 million BTC is illiquid. On the other hand, there are only 4 million bitcoins in a liquid state,” he said. “The lack of liquidity shows that investors continue to accumulate bitcoins. This means that investors believe that bitcoins will continue to grow.” .

② Citigroup said, “It is at an inflection point between whether virtual assets including bitcoin are accepted as mainstream or not as a means of speculation,” and “There are many risks and obstacles that hinder the development of bitcoin, but it can be a currency for international trade.” I evaluated it. He then diagnosed, “With the entry of institutional investors, trust has improved, and it shows better functions compared to existing payments, but some problems need to be solved in order to be widely accepted.” As tasks, he pointed out security and eco-friendliness.

③ Cryptocurrency analyst Lex Moskovski said on Twitter, “Miners have started accumulating bitcoin from yesterday. Miners have sold bitcoin for the past two months. But as of yesterday (27th),” The miner’s position has changed to positive (+),” he said.

④Tom Lee, founder and chief analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors, a US investment research firm, said in a recent tweet, “Trice adjustment is the history and DNA of assets like Bitcoin. Not surprisingly, this adjustment doesn’t affect bitcoin’s fair value. Bitcoin will go up to $100,000,” he said. “Now is the ideal time to buy bitcoin.” said.

(Neutral opinion)

① Cryptocurrency analyst Aayush Jindal said, “In order for the BTC/USD pair to move to the positive area in the near future, it must break through $47,000 and $48,000, and if it exceeds this price range, it will continue to be strong up to $50,000. “Conversely, if you don’t cross the $47,000 and $48,000 hurdles, you can test the $45,000, $43,000, and $42,000 support in turn.”

② Cryptocurrency analyst Rakesh Upadhyay said, “If Bitcoin bulls (buying forces) push the BTC price above the 20th exponential moving average (EMA, $47,441), it could rise to $52,000. “However, if the EMA collapses on the 20th, the BTC/USD pair price can be pushed to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA, $41,066), and if the downtrend continues after that, it will retreat to the intraday low of $38,000 on March 8. I can,” he analyzed. “As Bitcoin (BTC) prices have been adjusted in the last few days, investors are wondering if this is a small retreat or the beginning of a deeper decline,” he said. “However, the accumulation (purchase) of bitcoin by miners and institutions continues. It is becoming, and it is unlikely that the bear market will continue,” he added.

(Negative opinion)

① Cryptocurrency analyst Michael Van Defov said that a similar move could be repeated as Bitcoin fell to $43,000 after being blocked by the $48,000 resistance recently and returned to the $48,000 level due to buying pressure. In the process, the possibility of a temporary drop of around 20% was expected. He pointed out that if Bitcoin fails to maintain its current support level of $45,000, it could fall in the $37,000 to $40,000 range.

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Weakness>

Bitcoin daily market price (see Figure 6), which started strong following the surge the previous day, is falling again as it deviated from the moving average on the 20th and 10th in the aftermath of the short-term sales opening following the surge. Fortunately, there is not a lot of trading volume (refer to “Analysis of Bitcoin Trading Volume on the Day” on page 12), so if the market price approaches the moving average of the 5th after some adjustment is completed, it is expected that the low-priced buying trend will inflow and turn to an upward trend. .

<Figure 6=BTC/USDT (Binance) Daily Price (Based on 14:00 on the 2nd)/Chart=Trading View>

The short-term trend can be expected to rise, but since the daily market has diverged with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the medium-term trend of at least 1 to 3 months is expected to undergo an adjustment period. Therefore, it is recommended to proceed to liquidate the volume after obtaining sufficient profits during the rebound to around the $52,000 level. (The estimated timing of the start of decline and the estimated price of reaching the end of the decline by simulation will be provided to Aimrich paid members only through our experts)

Today is also the expiration date for Bitcoin and Ethereum daily options on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the same-day payment price was predicted to be about $47,300 and $1,440, respectively. In the case of Bitcoin, this price is near the moving average of 5 days, and Ethereum is near the moving average of 60 days.

<Figure 7=Deribit (DRBT) BTC Option Simulation Results of Expected Water Settlement Price on March 2 (at 14:00)/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Binance’s BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT prices calculated by the institute’s quant program for the day are $48,109 and $1,517, respectively. For both stocks, the current price is between the market price of the day and the price of a significant change, so you have to wait and see if the market recovers the market price of the day or supports and rebounds in the material price. Therefore, the buying conditions are: 1) support for the 5-day moving average, 2) support for US$48,109 or recovery after a breakout 3) market price recovery on the same day. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis

As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were found to be’Buy’ and’Active Buy’, respectively. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, Upbit came out with five’buy’ and one’sell’ and two’neutral’ opinions and’buy’ opinions among the oscillator indicators, and the moving average indicators were 11’buy’ and one. It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion as a suggestion’sell’.

<Figure 8=Upbit: BTC/KRW (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 6,’Sell’ is 2, and’Neutral’ is 2, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ with 10, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ into two.

<Figure 9=Binance: BTC/USDT (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on March 2) <Neutral>

The US CME Bitcoin futures price, which had plummeted as the bitcoin price entered a rebound, is gradually finding stability. As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return to the beginning of the year was 54.90%, up 0.30% from last Thursday, maintaining the No. 1 ranking among valuation assets. The second place was oil futures, but it plunged 5.42%.

US Treasury prices showed mixed trend as central banks recently sought to curb the steep increase in Treasury yields, and gradually stabilized from last week’s tumble. The value of the dollar turned to strong, paying attention to the trend of US Treasury yields. The rise in US Treasury yields, which triggered the strength of the dollar, has slowed, but investors’ bets that US growth and inflation will accelerate. Oil prices closed down due to concerns about slowing demand for crude oil in China and the possibility of increasing production in oil producing countries.

<Table 2=Status of increase/decrease in return by asset category/data=Chicago Commercial Exchange, USA>
<Figure 11=Year-to-Year-Year Trends by Asset Category/Data=Trading View>

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on March 2) <Neutral>

As bitcoin prices rebound, most cryptocurrency prices are also finding stability. While Binance Coin (BNB)’s growth rate slowed, Cardano (ADA) surpassed Binance Coin and rose to 3rd place in the market cap, and Stellar (XLM) re-entered the top 10. Meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) fell to 7th place, falling more than 18% over the past 7 days. As of 14:00 on the 2nd, Cardano (ADA) ranked first with 607.72%, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked second with 569.98%, Polkadot (DOT) ranked third with 340.55%, and Stellar (XLM) ranked 221.72% with 221.72%. 4th place and LINK ranked 5th with 137.65%.

<Figure 12=Ranking of the top 10 cryptocurrencies in market capitalization compared to the beginning of the year/Data=Trading View>

◇Bitcoin on-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of Bitcoin transaction volume on the day <Neutral>

Analyzing the trading volume of BTC/USD’s on-chain data on the same day makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Index 1 in Figure 13 shows the spot trading volume of BTCUSD, BTCUSD or BTCUSDC on 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini). Indicator 2 shows the trading volume of BTCUSD or XBTUSD indefinite futures on 7 derivatives exchanges (Binance Futures, OKX Futures, OKX Futures, Huobi Futures, FTX Futures, Kraken Futures, Delibit, BitMEX) in real time. Sum up and display.

<Figure 13=Comparison of total BTC spot trading volume and total BTC derivatives trading volume on major exchanges/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Bitcoin, which recovered to the moving average on the 20th, is falling as the trading volume is reduced compared to the previous day. (Refer to Index 1 in Figure 13) However, as futures trading volume does not increase, it is not a sign of a sharp decline. (Refer to Indicator 2 in Figure 13)

<Figure 14=Comparison of daily BTC purchases and total sales of major exchanges/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

In addition, looking at the index in Figure 14, it can be seen that bitcoin is currently in the process of digesting the sale because the price is not pushed much from the peak even though the total number of sales is higher than the total number of purchases. However, as price volatility is moving in the downward direction, it seems difficult to close the rise. Today is also the expiration date for daily Bitcoin and Ethereum options on the DRBT exchange, and the expected settlement price for the two stocks is estimated at $47,300 and $1,520, respectively, as of 14:00.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

As Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plummeted, there was a crossing with the Kimchi premium index. However, as the prices of the two stocks rebounded, they were relocated after a day of crossing, and the direction of the kimchi premium index seems to be turning into a stable zone so that the pattern is clearly different compared to the crossing point in early February. Therefore, although it is still above ‘0’, the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum is truly entering a phase, so from a mid- to long-term buying point of view, it is not a situation that is of great concern.

<Figure 15=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=CryptoQuant>
<Figure 16=Comparison of Ethereum Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trends/Data=CryptoQuant>

③ Analysis of mass transaction volume according to on-chain indicators after bitcoin plunge <Strengthening>

Figure 17 shows the trend of the Bitcoin balance held by major exchanges. It can be seen that the transaction volume has increased a lot as the recent bitcoin plunged after the all-time high, which appears to have been deposited to the exchange to dispose of the bitcoin held in an external wallet. As can be seen from the figure, as of 14:00 on the 2nd, it is believed that most of the increased volume has been exhausted. Therefore, unless there is an inflow of additional selling volume, there will be no significant drop in trend for the time being.

<Figure 17=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Balance Trends in Major Exchanges/Data=Cryptoquant>

Figure 18, contrary to Figure 17, shows the amount of money that has been leaked from Coinbase, the US cryptocurrency exchange, as the bitcoin price has fallen from an all-time high. The average purchase price was about $48,000, which is a very positive factor in the rise of bitcoin prices, as it can be viewed as a long-term investor, mainly for institutions and others.

<Figure 18=Bitcoin Price and Coinbase Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=CryptoQuant>

◇Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Strengthening>

Looking at the analysis result (see Figure 18) of the percentage of outstanding pledges aggregated from the bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com), the percentage of rising positions is 10 o’clock -4.41 based on the number of contracts. % To 25.95% as of 14 o’clock. In addition, the premium ratio of the call option and the put option, which was 5.95%:3.93% at 10 o’clock, is 4.07%:-32.37%, which shows that the selling ratio of the put option has increased significantly. Therefore, it is expected that the Bitcoin price will rise after the bottom is formed on the afternoon of the day.

<Figure 18=Analysis of non-payment agreements for bitcoin options of major exchanges as of 10:00 (top) and 14:00 (bottom) on the 2nd = Data/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

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Chainlink Rallies Higher as Analysts Expect Further Mid-Term Upside (www.blockcast.cc)

Chainlink has seen one of the strongest rebounds from its recent lows across the aggregated altcoin market, with its price rocketing higher as investors begin rotating capital into “risk-on” assets as Bitcoin and Ethereum show signs of strength.

Its rebound is showing few signs of slowing down, and a move back up to its all-time highs could be on the table if the wider crypto market continues showing signs of strength.

One analyst is now pointing towards a diagonal resistance level that has been formed over the past few days, noting that a break above this level could spark the next leg higher.

He also notes that this recent momentum stems from a break above the upper boundary of a triangle formation that it had previously been caught within over a mid-term time frame.

The coming few days and weeks could provide it with further momentum, potentially sparking a sharp upswing if Bitcoin and Ethereum continue climbing higher.

Chainlink Rallies as Broader Crypto Market Shows Signs of Strength 

At the time of writing, Chainlink is trading up just under 6% at its current price of $12.85.

This marks a massive surge from where it was trading just over a week ago when bears attempted to spark a selloff that sent it to lows of $9.60.

Where it trends in the short-term could have some serious implications for its macro trend, as a push higher from here could mark the start of its next parabolic move that sends it rocketing towards, or even past, its previous all-time highs of $20.00.

This move will be bolstered if the wider market remains strong, with BTC and ETH’s ongoing uptrends leading investors to rotate more capital into high beta assets like Chainlink.

Analyst: LINK Likely to Push Higher as Technical Strength Mounts

While sharing his thoughts on Chainlink’s current technical outlook, one trader observed that it is currently trading just below a diagonal resistance level that it is attempting to break.

If broken, he believes that this could spark a move that sends it rocketing significantly higher in the days ahead.

“LINK – Key S&R flip holding as Support over the last few hours. Slow bleed/chop & Diagonal resistance on the h1. When the diag breaks I’m expecting another leg up. The reaction at the EQ will be very important.”

Chainlink

Chainlink

Image Courtesy of UB. Source: LINKUSD on TradingView.

The coming few days should prove to be pivotal for major altcoins like Chainlink.

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Charts from TradingView.

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Yearn.finance Could Confirm a Mid-Term Bottom if It Does These 2 Things (www.blockcast.cc)

Yearn.finance’s governance token – YFI – has erased a significant portion of its recent gains throughout the past few weeks, with relentless selling pressure coming about due to various factors.

Heightened “founder’s risk,” a fragmented community, and low yields for the ecosystem’s yVaults have been degrading the value of the YFI token.

News of a major crypto fund investing $5 million into the YFI token did provide its price with a serious boost yesterday. However, it is important to note that this is only a small percentage of the fund’s total AUM.

It has been able to hold onto the majority of its recent gains, and its price is showing continued signs of strength as it consolidates around $15,000.

Its short-term uptrend may be bolstered by the significant push higher seen by both Bitcoin and Ethereum today.

One analyst is now noting that there are two things he is closely watching for before flipping macro long on the Yearn.finance token.

He claims that until YFI can retrace and bounce at a key trendline, it could still be on track to reel to below $10,000.

Yearn.finance’s YFI Stabilizes as Crypto Market Trends Higher

At the time of writing, Yearn.finance’s YFI is trading down less than 2% at its current price of $15,000. This is around where it has been trading throughout the past day.

Late last week, its price plunged to $13,000 before news broke regarding Polychain’s $5m allocation to YFI – making them one of the token’s largest holders.

This boosted investor confidence in the project and sent its price surging towards $16,000.

It has since retraced from its daily highs but is looking stable as the aggregated crypto market trends higher.

Here are the 2 Things YFI Must Do Before Breaking Its Downtrend

One analyst shared that he is closely watching for Yearn.finance to do 2 things before flips long.

He specifically notes that YFI must retrace and then post a rebound at a key trendline that exists just below where it is currently trading.

“About to become a DeFi maximalist, but not just yet… Waiting for: 1. Retrace 2. Buying contact with resistance (hopefully new support). Invalidation back below dotted line. Patience is key, no need to rush this,” he said.

Yearn.finance YFI

Yearn.finance YFI

Image Courtesy of Teddy. Source: YFIUSD on TradingView.

As seen in the above chart, if YFI loses its momentum and breaks below its descending trendline, a move towards $6,000 could be imminent.

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Written by Vitalik: Reviewing the roadmap of Ethereum’s short-term and mid-term expansion, and looking forward to the Ethereum roadmap with rollup as the center (www.blockcast.cc)

Vitalik撰文:回顾以太坊近期及中期扩容路线图,展望 rollup 作为中心的以太坊路线图Translator’s Note: Since this year, rollup has received widespread attention as a very potential expansion solution. Many second-tier projects using rollup technology are online on the main network or test network. Vitalik himself has repeatedly called the community to pay attention and Use rollup. Earlier this month, Vitalik wrote an article on the Ethereum Magicians Forum in detail. If rollup is used as the future development center of Ethereum, what adjustments should be made to the roadmap of Ethereum?

It should be noted that the Ethereum community adopts a market-type development model-in this model, there is no centralized center, instead transparent and open discussions. In other words, after Vitalik himself posted this post, it does not mean that Ethereum’s roadmap will be changed accordingly. The market model greatly enhances the inclusiveness of Ethereum and the possibility of group wisdom emerging in the evolution process. Therefore, when rollup gradually shows its potential in the evolution of the blockchain world, the discussion initiated by Vitalik is bound to meet Make rollup play a more important role in the evolution of Ethereum.

In order to better explain the background of the views in his article, Vitalik has made more detailed supplementary explanations on multiple occasions. We put Vitalik’s social media speeches at the beginning of this article as background introduction and abstract; Vitalik in the ether The post on the Magician Forum is placed in the middle as the main text; at the end, we also selected Vitalik’s Q&A at the ETHGlobal event at the beginning of the month for readers’ reference.

Fragmentation is not cancelled, but superimposed

The current ETH2.0 roadmap consists of 3 stages:

  1. Phase 0: PoS (this phase is being implemented and will be implemented soon)
  2. Phase 1: Data fragmentation, but does not include computational fragmentation (that is, the fragmentation chain will “include” data with a capacity of 2 MB/sec, but the data are all dummy data objects, not transactions)
  3. Phase 2: Transaction fragmentation (fragmented transaction processing function)
  4. Ethereum’s current TPS is about 15-45, and using Rollup can increase throughput by 100 times. Fragmentation can increase throughput by 64 times. The throughput achieved by these two technologies is superimposed, which means that rollup is superimposed on the basis of shards, and a throughput increase of 6400 times can be achieved.
  5. But the current roadmap will give rise to an interesting surprise: the vision of realizing sharding applications will not be realized until Phase 2, but the shard rollup can be realized in Phase 1, because rollup only needs to store data on the main chain The function does not require the main chain to realize the calculation function. Therefore, before the complete realization of ETH 2.0, Ethereum has the conditions to expand by 6,400 times.
  6. Therefore, instead of replacing slices with rollup, rollup is superimposed on slices. In other words, before the implementation of sharding, rollup can achieve a 100-fold increase in throughput, so use rollup as soon as possible!

Ethereum roadmap centered on Rollup

Last week, the Optimism team announced the launch of the first phase of Optimism’s testnet (Chinese translation), and at the same time announced the roadmap to the mainnet. Optimism is not the only team that is implementing optimisitic rollup. Fuel’s rollup is also moving towards the testnet, and Arbitrum is also doing a rollup. The rollup solution based on zk-rollup implemented by Loopring and zkSync has been launched, and the Deversifi based on Starkware technology has also been launched, and users have already used these products on the mainnet. The launch of OMG’s mainnet test version shows that plasma is also moving forward.

At the same time, the gas price on eth1 is climbing to a new high, so that some non-financial dapps are forced to close, and some dapps can only be run on the testnet and miss the mainnet.

The scalability of the system is the meaning of Eth2, and the early stage of Eth2 is also advancing rapidly. But for applications that use the base layer, scalability will not appear until the last major phase of Eth2 (Phase 2), which will take several years. Ironically, in Phase 1 of Eth2, Eth2 can be used as the data availability layer of rollup, which is much earlier than Eth2 can be used by the “traditional” layer of applications (Translator’s Note: That is currently running on eth1 Application).

A summary of these factors leads to a special conclusion: the Ethereum ecosystem is likely to devote itself to rollup (plus some plasma and state channel solutions) as a strategy to achieve scalability in the short and medium term. If this conclusion is used as a premise, we will draw some conclusions regarding the priorities of Ethereum’s core development and ecological development, suggesting a different direction from the current roadmap in a sense. Specifically, what conclusions can we draw?

Short-term roadmap: Promoting ETH1 around rollup

Regarding the short-term direction, a main conclusion is that the scalability of the Ethereum base layer will mainly focus on expanding the amount of data that each block can hold, rather than the efficiency of on-chain computing or IO operations. Because for rollup, the only decisive factor for its scalability is how much data can fit on the chain. Any expansion method that exceeds the current data capacity (about 60 kB/sec) will help further improve the scalability of rollup.

From this perspective, the following basic layer improvements are still meaningful (helping to improve the scalability of rollup): EIP 2929, to ensure that the Ethereum main chain can resist DoS attacks under the current Gas settings. EIP 1559 and EIP 1559 are both OK Realizing the burning of ETH can also make a transaction easier to be packaged in the next block (rollup system needs to rely on the transaction to be confirmed on the main chain) New elliptic curve pre-compilation, which can more fully explore the potential performance of ZK rollup Hexadecimal -> Binary tree changes, and other changes that promote better support for stateless clients (no matter how the main chain is used, stateless clients are very valuable) The importance of account abstraction is slightly weaker, because regardless of L1 Whether to support account abstraction, it can be implemented on L2. Other similar “smart base layer features” will also become relatively less important.

The Eth1 client can be reused by the optimistic rollup client. An optimistic rollup still needs a full node. If the internal state transition rules of the rollup are similar to those of Ethereum, with some modifications (this is the goal of Optimism), then the existing code can be reused to run the full node of the rollup . The work of separating the consensus engine and the state transition engine has been carried out in the context of the merger of eth1+Eth2, and this work can also help achieve the above goals.

It is important to note that projects like TurboGeth are still very important, but the high-throughput rollup client will benefit the most from the eth1 client at the base layer.

Short-term roadmap: Adjust the corresponding infrastructure around Rollup

Currently, the user’s account is on L1, the ENS domain name is on L1, and all applications are running on L1. Everything needs to change. We need to adapt to such a world: the user’s main account, balance, assets, etc. are completely in L2. This will lead to these situations: ENS needs to support the registration and transfer of domain names on L2; see here for a possible proposal on how to achieve this.

The L2 layer protocol should be built into the wallet, not on the web like a dapp. At present, the integration of L2 into dapp/like dapp (for example, Gitcoin’s integration of zksync) requires users to fully trust the dapp, which is much less secure than the status quo. The ideal situation is to make L2 part of the wallet (metamask, status, etc.) itself, so that we can maintain the current trust model. This support should be standardized, so that an application that supports zksync payment will immediately support zksync-inide-Metamask, zksync-inide-Status, etc.

We need to do more work on cross-L2 transfers, so that when assets are transferred between different L2s, the user experience is as instant and seamless as possible. More clearly standardize Yul or something like an intermediate compiled language.

The underlying EVM of Ethereum and the OVM launched by Optimism use slightly different compilation targets, but both can be compiled by Solidity. In order to support an ecosystem with different compilation goals, but at the same time avoiding Solidity’s single culture and accepting multiple languages, it may make sense to more clearly standardize things like Yul as an intermediate language, so that all high-level languages ​​can ( By compiling to intermediate language) is compiled to EVM or OVM.

We can also consider a more explicit intermediate language that is friendly to formal verification, which can handle concepts like variables and ensure basic invariants, thus making formal verification easier.

Economic sustainability advantages of Rollup Centrism

An unavoidable fact is: a cryptocurrency project must achieve financial sustainability. In 2020, this means that a project requires millions or even tens of millions of dollars in funding. Some of them can be provided by common public welfare funding entities (such as Gitcoin Grants or the Ethereum Foundation), but their scale is not enough to reach the above-mentioned funding level. Second-tier projects can raise funds by launching their own tokens-of course, provided that the tokens have real economic value support (that is, the L2 is expected to capture future processing fees).

The second important benefit of the rollup-centric roadmap is that it leaves open space for L2 protocols. These L2 protocols can either directly collect fees/MEV or indirectly issue tokens to obtain development needs. Of funds. An important requirement of the Ethereum base layer is credibility and neutrality, which makes it difficult for public welfare funding within the agreement (imagine how difficult it is to agree on who should get how much money), but L2 establishes its own public welfare funding mechanism (you can also (Conducted on Gitcoin Grants) is much less controversial. Therefore, leaving this space is a good strategic move for the long-term economic sustainability of the entire Ethereum.

In addition to funding issues, the most creative researchers and developers often want to create influence on their own turf, rather than arguing with others about the future of the Ethereum protocol in an influential position. In addition, there are already many existing projects trying to create various platforms. The rollup-centric roadmap provides a clear opportunity for all these projects to enable them to become part of the Ethereum ecosystem while still maintaining a high degree of economic and technological autonomy.

Long-term roadmap

In addition to the above short-term roadmap considerations, a rollup-centric roadmap may also mean reimagining the long-term future of Eth2: a highly secure execution shard that everyone can handle, plus an Scalable data availability layer. To understand why this can be said, consider the following data: Ethereum’s current TPS is about 15.

If everyone transfers to rollup, TPS will reach 3000. Once Phase 1 of Eth2 is implemented, rollup is transferred to the Eth2 shard chain for data storage, and the theoretical maximum TPS can reach 100,000. Eventually, Phase 2 of Eth2 will be implemented, and calculations will be implemented on a fragmented basis. At this time, the TPS is about 1000-5000 TPS. In my opinion, when Eth2 Phase 2 is finally implemented, no one cares anymore. By then, whether we like it or not, everyone has adapted to a world centered on rollup. At that time, it is much easier to continue along the previous path than trying to get everyone to migrate to the basic chain after Eth2 is completed, because there is no obvious benefit of migrating to the basic chain after Eth2 is completed, scalability It will be reduced by 20-100 times. This means that from Eth2 to “Phase 1.5 is complete”, the base layer will shrink again, and only need to focus on doing a few things-namely consensus and data availability.

This may be a more suitable goal for Eth2, because sharding for data availability is much safer than sharding for EVM computing. If you want to verify the dishonest-majority-proof of the fragmented EVM calculation, you need a fraud proof, which requires a strict and potentially risky synchronization assumption of two epochs, but data availability sampling (If you use zero-knowledge proof or polynomial promise completion) it is safe under the asynchronous assumption. This will help distinguish Ethereum from the security model of other sharded Layer 2 chains, which are all sharded at the execution level. The function of Eth2 as the basic layer only needs to be just right (Chinese translation), not very powerful.

In the long run, what should Eth2 do? Stagger the block times on different shards, so that at any time there will always be some shards that will block within a few hundred milliseconds. This allows rollups that run across multiple shards to have ultra-low latency without exposing the chain itself to the risk of ultra-low latency. Improve and consolidate its consensus algorithm to adjust the EVM to make it more friendly to the verification of fraud proofs (for example, this may mean some kind of “framework” feature to prevent the code from leaving the sandbox, or allow SLOAD/SSTORE instructions to be remapped to the account Things other than storage as its data source).

A more compromise proposal

If you don’t agree that the above-mentioned “all the way” is going to the development direction of “Phase 1.5 is complete”, then there is a natural compromise: make Eth2 have a small number of execution shards (for example, 4-8) and more data Fragmentation. Our goal is that the number of execution shards is still small enough. Under special circumstances, ordinary computers can fully verify all execution shards, but the base layer space will still be much larger than the current roadmap.

The basic layer space cannot be too small, because users and applications still need to use the basic layer to perform a series of operations, such as moving between different rollups, submitting fraud proofs, submitting ZK proofs in ZK rollups, and issuing root ERC20 token contracts (of course , Most users will use rollup most of the time, but the base layer contract must be stored somewhere in the base layer…) and so on. And if the cost of each transaction involved in these operations is $140, the user experience is still very poor.

Therefore, if necessary, setting 4-8 execution fragments instead of one can greatly alleviate this problem. And one computer can still verify all the slices. Today, a block can be mined every 13 seconds on Ethereum, and it takes about 200-500 milliseconds to verify a block, so it is completely feasible to verify 8 threads in a short time. It is conceivable that the client will have such a countermeasure: “As long as the network delay is very low, or the number of committees reaches 80% of the full number, relying on fraud proofs and committees, all shards can be directly verified under special circumstances.”

Questions and answers on this article on ETHGLOBAL

Q: L2 is committed to solving the expansion problem. It has been studied and discussed in the community for many years, but the previous attempts seem to be unsuccessful. How much confidence do you have in rollup? How is this expansion attempt different from before ?

A: I have a more detailed discussion on this issue in my blog post (Chinese translation). My main point is that rollup is different from state channels and plasma. For expansion, there are two things to expand: expansion calculation and expansion data availability.

My point is that neither state channels nor plasma solve the data availability problem. They use a special kind of technique related to the application scenario to try to solve this problem. The difference from the previous two is that rollup does not put everything off-chain, but puts calculations off-chain, but stores a certain amount of data (such as 10, 16, 50 bytes) on the chain. This is the reason why the expansion performance of rollup is limited. In other words, Rollup is more compromised, sacrificing some scalability in order to support arbitrary state machines.

For plasma, at first we thought that we could solve the problem of running arbitrary state machines in plasma, but in the end we realized that this was impossible. But for rollup, there is some mathematical and technical evidence to prove that rollup can achieve these functions-any state machine, that is, a certain Turing completeness. In practice, rollup has been running successfully for some time. For example, there are already 3 DEXs that use rollup. You can also use rollup when donating gitcoin. Sythentix and other projects are tested in the testnet that supports evm.

It can be said that the unsolved problems in the state channel and plasma have been gradually solved in rollup.

Q: Currently L1 has composability/interoperability, do you think it will still have it in the future? From another perspective, do you think there will be multiple rollups coexisting in the future, or a winner takes all?

A: This is a good question. I think some rollups will dominate at the end. I think rollup has both network effects and anti-network effects. The main anti-network effect is: the larger the TPS, the more difficult it is to run a rollup full node, which will reduce its availability to a certain extent. On the other hand, there are currently several different technical routes for rollup. I hope that these technical routes and the corresponding technical features will be tested in the short to medium term. In the long run, maybe a certain rollup will be winner-takes-all, but I’m not sure yet🙂

Q: You described a possible vision in your article. When do you think the Ethereum base layer will stabilize? Or will it continue to improve iteratively?

A: In the roadmap I proposed, I hope that Ethereum 2.0 will reach a basically stable state at the 1.5 stage, which is why I mentioned “complete at 1.5 stage” in my article. However, there will be continuous technical iterations after this. These technical iterations mainly include adding more zero-knowledge proofs to improve security and efficiency, changing the consensus mechanism from FFG to CBC, and switching cryptographic primitives to post-quantum cryptography Learn primitives. These improvements will basically not affect the economic system and basic security features of Ethereum. I definitely look forward to continuous iterative optimization of technology for a long time, of course these optimizations are more close to the operation and maintenance level.

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Binance Coin Jumps 17% Rally by Mid-September; Could It Hit $40? (www.blockcast.cc)

Binance Coin (Symbol: BNBUSD) is the only top tier cryptocurrency that has returned profits to its investors in the first half of September.

The seventh-largest crypto by market capitalization was up by circa 17 percent, trading at $29.07 as of 1023 GMT, Tuesday. At the same time, other leading cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, were trading 10-20 percent below zero.

Beating Ethereum

At its month-to-date high, Binance Coin was trading at $34.05, up by almost 47.04 percent. The cryptocurrency’s surprising upside move came amidst growing demand for Binance Chain. The blockchain software system reportedly onboarded more users as its top rival, Ethereum, suffered from lethargic transaction times, high fees, and high transaction failures.

Binance Coin serves as the de-facto settlement token inside the Binance ecosystem, which covers its regulated trading platform, decentralized exchange, as well as its crowdfunding platform, and native blockchain. As the ecosystem attracts more users, it also enables further demand for BNB tokens.

“The flippening is real, except it’s not with BTC and ETH,” an observer commented. “It’s with ETH and BNB. No failed transactions, transactions confirm in seconds, basically no fees, BNB is simply providing a far superior trading experience.”

Binance Coin carries a long history of stable uptrends with minor, hiccup-like downside corrections. The cryptocurrency backs one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency conglomerate, Binance, that leaves no doubt about its growth as a utility token.

That somewhat puts Binance Coin in the category of investment-worthy assets. Meanwhile, given the regulatory and other speculative risks associated with the cryptocurrency firms, Binance Coin also comes with risks of showing aberrant price behaviors.

Binance Coin Technical Outlook

Technically, BNBUSD stands tall like the rest of the top cryptocurrencies, at least for the year 2020.

A string of dovish policies announced by central banks around the globe has allowed investors to look beyond cash and government bonds for better yields. While Bitcoin remains the top choice for those who want to invest in cryptocurrencies, altcoins like BNB serves as an alternative to those with higher risk appetites.

It is the same reason why Binance Coin has outperformed Bitcoin YTD-wise. BNBUSD stands atop 113 percent profits at the time of this writing while BTCUSD is up by a dwarfed 48 percent.

binance, BNB, cryptocurrency, binance coin

binance, BNB, cryptocurrency, binance coin

BNB/USD eyes an extended move towards $40. Source: TradingView.com

As the global policies remain intact, BNBUSD eyes an extended move upward. The pair is now testing $32 as its interim resistance as it maintains a strong footing near $26.91. If it manages to hold above the support level, then traders might attempt to take the price up towards $38.95.

The target is very close to $40, a psychological level of interest. Meanwhile, slipping below $26.91 could have traders short BNBUSD with an interim downside target near $23.

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Author: Refer to Source Yashu Gola