On the afternoon of December 30th, BitHelios of Tinder Research Institute and seven guests from Bill, Jayson, Bruce, xy, Chen Mo, Cao Yin and Super Jun organized an online roundtable sharing. The topics included new changes in algorithmic stablecoins, mining strategies and Experience, future trends and development, and then the Tinder Research Institute conducted an overall round table content. The excerpts from this sharing are as follows:
Bruce (MC/guest)
Welcome everyone to the Tinder community algorithmic stablecoin roundtable, this is also the first algorithmic stablecoin roundtable in Chinese! I sincerely thank all the guests for coming. You are the pioneers and trendies of algorithmic stablecoins.
Bill (guest)
Hello everyone, thank you Tinder Research Institute for giving me an opportunity to share with you some personal opinions on algorithmic stablecoins. These opinions are purely personal opinions and will focus on 1. New changes in algorithmic stablecoins 2. Mining strategies and experience 3. . The three topics of future trends and development are unfolded. We welcome you to point out any incorrect or need to be improved.
1. New changes in algorithmic stablecoins
Let’s first review the development stages that algorithmic stablecoins have gone through.
The first stage: The prototype stage of development represented by AMPL. In this stage, the rebase coin adjusts the currency balance of the holder’s wallet according to the currency price. This balance change method cannot meet the basic needs of stable currency development: use It is impossible for a person to hold a currency whose balance changes every day for the basic functions required for stable currency such as consumption and transfer. But AMPL successfully tried a possibility of dynamically adjusting the money supply based on market demand on the blockchain.
The second stage: the initial stage of development represented by ESD/DSD. ESD is the first to introduce a bond model to solve the deflation problem algorithm stable currency. This method can ensure that the user’s wallet balance remains unchanged, which is a future stable currency application scenario. Expansion laid the foundation for development. During the inflation period, users can obtain more inflation tokens by pledged tokens, and during the deflation period, speculators can purchase coupons and destroy the tokens to achieve deflation.
ESD/DSD is an algorithmic stable currency using a single currency, that is, inflation and deflation are all completed through this single currency. Pledge tokens during inflation to obtain more tokens, and destroy tokens during deflation to obtain coupons with different premiums. This reduces the willingness of token holders to use tokens in circulation, and its more important purpose is to make profits by speculation, which to some extent limits the long-term development of stablecoins. Stable coins that do not have circulation value have no long-term development value.
On the other hand, ESD/DSD adopts a development model similar to a capital disk. The earlier the entrants, the more profitable they will be. The rapid wealth effect has triggered a frenzy in the market. The crazy development compared with the inability to expand the application scenarios may be ESD /DSD development brings huge potential crises, and the digital currency market may collapse quickly when it enters a bear market. Investing in this stable currency requires extra control of risk.
The third stage: the mature development stage represented by BASIS. BASIS uses three tokens to simulate the US dollar issuance system. The three tokens correspond to the three core tools in the US dollar issuance system: BAC corresponds to the US dollar in circulation, and BAS corresponds to Fed equity, BAB corresponds to US dollar treasury bonds.
Based on years of experience in stable operation of the US dollar currency issuance system, the development of BASIS has also achieved great success. Since its official launch, BASIS has been widely recognized by the market, continues to be in an inflationary period, and more and more traditional financial funds have begun to enter BASIS stable currency system.
The BASIS design completely separates the stable currency BAC and the equity currency BAS, which solves the problem that the liquidity of a single currency is difficult to strengthen. Investors and speculators focus on the investment transactions of BAS and BAB, and users can complete daily payments and consumption through BAC The basic functions of stable currencies such as trading and trading.
As the pioneer of the three-currency separation, BASIS has many areas to be improved in its model, which brings opportunities to newcomers. These areas to be improved include: 1. A more equal launch mechanism guarantees more The entry of multiple people, instead of just letting the earliest entrants or big funds get the most benefit. 2. Equity currency BAS needs to introduce lock-up and provide liquidity to help the long-term development of the ecology.
The nature of algorithmic stablecoin is to challenge the fiat currency issued by the state. After this stable currency develops to a certain stage, it will inevitably trigger national resistance. This is clearly seen in the government’s intervention in the forced closure of BASIS’s prototype basis.io by the US government. Therefore, algorithmic stablecoins must be developed and operated in an anonymous manner. At the same time, it is necessary to consider the various impacts that may be brought about by strong government supervision.
2. Mining strategy and experience
Algorithmic stablecoin mining is to participate in the minting business with almost zero cost. It is the investment method with the largest return in the current market. Therefore, it has attracted a large number of investors to enter the stablecoin mining field. However, this kind of investment is too early and the model is not perfect. Therefore, currency prices may fluctuate violently, and using the wrong investment strategy may make you return to zero overnight.
Common mistakes in mining include:
(1) After entering the black market, all funds are returned to zero. With the emergence of a large number of imitations, various forms of scams have also appeared. Identifying scams in social networks such as Telegram, WeChat, and Twitter is a basic skill for engaging in digital currency investment.
(2) Failure to understand the rules of the game leads to losses or unprofitability. Various stablecoins have different operating rules. For example, in ESD/DSD, DAO pools and LPs have different coin production conditions and thawing times. If you do not study the rules carefully, Entering rashly may lead to the embarrassing situation of seeing others continue to produce coins and being locked up for a long time and unable to produce coins.
(3) The wrong mining and currency trading strategy is selected. When stable currency is used for lossless mining, there may be different stable currency mining pools. Each pool will have different mining speeds. Choose a suitable stable currency for mining. There will be a big difference in output. For many small-capital investors, direct purchase of share currency can often increase the rate of return on investment, but the price of share currency fluctuates greatly. How to choose a suitable price to buy and sell is very important. Otherwise you will lose money when everyone makes money.
(4) Blindly entering the project by MLM brainwashing or buying and selling in the opposite direction leads to losses. We may be familiar with various WeChat group screen-scrolling brainwashing to encourage everyone to stud. This kind of follow-up after brainwashing often becomes a catcher.
Mining experience
(1) Follow the right community, follow the right people. In the good community, everyone learns from each other and constantly improves. In the end, everyone becomes a master of investment. The bad community is brainwashed daily by MLM, and finally everyone becomes a brainless leek. After a batch of leeks leave the market at a loss, they will continue to cheat a batch of new leeks to come in and continue cutting. Try to avoid MLM-style communities and group owners who don’t think and learn.
(2) Continuously strengthen the understanding and cognition of the financial system, and learn more about technology. Most of the applications of digital currency are based on the application system of the financial system. Only a deep understanding of the financial system and its rules can quickly understand the various applications of digital currency and DeFi and quickly seize opportunities. Almost all the upstarts who have emerged in this DeFi boom are financial professionals with deep understanding of finance.
(3) Learning more blockchain technology at the same time also allows us to avoid various traps and quickly seize opportunities. This knowledge includes reading information on the chain, wallet tracking technology, manual operation of smart contracts, reading and comparing smart contracts Wait.
(4) Learn more about people’s understanding and analysis skills. Behind every project is a living person. Before investing our hard-earned money, we must carefully analyze whether the people behind the invested project are criminals with evil hearts or Entrepreneurs fighting for their ideals? Is it a 14-year-old kid with no business concept or a serial entrepreneur with extensive entrepreneurial experience? These people’s analytical capabilities can help us maintain the maximum success rate throughout the investment process.
(5) Do more rational analysis and independent judgment to avoid brainwashing impulses. When choosing investment targets, the most taboo is to blindly follow the wealth secrets of the so-called big coffee teachers, and make investment decisions only after an independent, objective and rational analysis of all the information obtained. In the unregulated blockchain financial market, the vast majority of so-called industry experts are leeks who make a living by buying coins at low prices and selling them to brainless leeks for a living.
(6) Do not judge items blindly, and keep a sense of curiosity about all new items. The most common remark we hear is: this spicy chicken imitation plate, don’t touch it. But in fact, most of the excellent projects starting with Ethereum started from imitating disks. You can know how many Ethereum imitating disks have been successful. So I will not jump to conclusions on any new project, and continue to study each new project with a kind of curiosity.
(7) Control positions, no stud, no gambling, and reasonable allocation of the investment ratio of each project. Gambling on dogs seems to have become a fashion for digital currency investment. It does not look at the fundamentals of the project, does not analyze the potential, but only looks at the public sentiment stud, but this is not investment, it is gambling. The difference between investment and gambling is: gambling is a bet on pure mathematical probability, and investment is a business model with increasing probability of success. But even a seemingly good business model may have black swan incidents, such as the incident of hacker attacks on the COVER project in the past two days. This kind of uncertainty can minimize the loss caused by problems only through reasonable control of positions.
(8) Learn to make a profit and exit at the set take-profit point, and don’t be greedy for the last cent. There is no shortage of all kinds of regrets around us. The most frequently heard may be regret for not selling at a high point or buying at a low point. If we observe the investment behavior of investment masters, we will find that no master can always grasp the highest and lowest points to complete the transaction, and a larger proportion of their transactions are fluctuating in the mid-range. It is a necessary ability for a mature investor to make a profit and exit at the profit point set by oneself and then stop looking back.
3. Future trends and development
Just as the Bank of England emerged from the melee of many private coinages and helped create the glorious history of the British Empire, we are also witnessing a variety of coinage battles based on blockchain technology today, which will eventually produce a batch of alternative centralized stability. The decentralized algorithm of the currency is a stable currency.
Are these algorithmic stablecoins completely unsecured algorithmic stablecoins like ESD/DSD, partially mortgaged algorithmic stablecoins such as FRAX is trying, or algorithmic stablecoins that use disguised mortgages such as LP lock-up mortgage? It is possible, and it is also possible that multiple stablecoins of different forms coexist.
What we need to do as investors is to keep learning, keep curious about all kinds of new things and keep trying, only in this way can we seize the most promising opportunity. You may have missed Bitcoin, or you may have missed Ethereum, but as long as you seize this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, you will have the kind of success that you got when mining Bitcoin with your personal computer 10 years ago!
Jayson (guest)
Hello everyone! Thanks for the invitation of Tinder Research Institute! Bill shared very well, very structured. I will share from my experience. It may be a little messy, but it is guaranteed to be true.
Let me introduce myself first. Many Amber friends know me because of the Decentraland (MANA) project. I was an early investor in the project, and later joined the team as the head of China. I left the MANA team last year, and then I was mainly busy with my own business. In fact, I have left Amber for about a year. Before entering Amber, I came from a traditional investment bank. I worked for Goldman Sachs 15 years ago. In Melbourne, I mainly made secondary market investments. Later, I returned to China to start my own business and started 2 companies. One raised 3 rounds of money, and the other successfully exited in 15 years.
Like many old leeks, I have experienced the Defi scam -> Defi is really fragrant. It’s just the problem of getting in the car late in the morning. I participated in Defi at the end of September. The first mine I dug was SWRV, and I basically missed the entire Defi.
I learned that ESD is about October, which is considered to be an early introduction to this project in China. After I knew the mechanics of this project, I was in a big position. Then it took about 1 month to study. Now everyone has a better understanding of the mechanism, etc., but there were very few materials at the time, there were no Chinese materials at all, and there were only a few articles in English. I mix in ESD Discod and ask various questions every day. I have experienced it except for the first time, and it has been 4 cycles now. Regarding ESD, there is another very interesting thing. After I discovered this project, I went to the AMPL group to promote it, and then I was scolded by group friends that I was a liar, and then kicked out of the group. At that time, the market value of ESD was about 40 million. Now ESD The market value has far exceeded AMPL.
Regarding Basis Cash, I have been following it before. In fact, before Basis went live, the popularity was very low. Before his Telegram went live, there were only 300-400 people. To be honest, I didn’t expect Basis to be as popular as it is now. Because I invested in these two projects earlier, I built several groups. At the beginning, the esd group had only about 40 people, and it lasted for more than a month. By the beginning of December, it suddenly became popular.
This is my own mental journey of participating in the project. In fact, when I first participated, I was not so determined, but full of suspicion. But after spending a lot of time researching in the last two months, the future will become more and more clear.
In terms of the overall environment, the US government’s sanctions on these non-compliant centralized stablecoins are a certainty. You have already seen XRP, and the next one is USDT. The entire Defi is basically built on top of USDC and Dai. Both of these have their own problems. USDC is compliant, but centralized, it can block your account. As for Dai, its size is relatively small and its capital utilization rate is very poor. So in fact, the market urgently needs a decentralized stablecoin as a spear.
OK. There is no problem with the track, then the next one is the question of selection. I personally think that the underlying structure of the algorithmic stable currency has been established. ESD and BAS have obviously gotten out of the way. ESD has more than 10 million vaults, and BAS has more than 400,000 vaults. Once the project party has money, many things can be done. ESD has been significantly accelerated recently. For example, V2 is already in progress and will be launched in February. Then the specific staff are also relatively senior in the industry. I can feel it when I come out.
·Andy Chorlian – ex-MakerDAO smart contract developer, YFI strategist
·Dan Matthews – PieDAO, Audit DAO
·Austin Williams – OpenZeppelin auditor and creator of Coupon Clipper
·Scott Lewis – DeFi Pulse, Slingshot and mechanism designer
·Will Price – crypto data scientist and mechanism designer
A rich community, coupled with the speed of rapid self-evolution, will quickly stand out from competitors. BAS is also working on BAS V2, but what’s more interesting is that some imitation disks launched today (I won’t say the name, so I don’t want to advertise them) have already implemented some of the functions of BAS v2 in advance. Boardroom is LP pledge instead of single currency pledge, which solves the problem of insufficient liquidity of BAS. These competitive and innovative imitation disks are also urging the projects that are running ahead to continue to evolve.
As for other non-innovative imitation disks, they all become the nourishment of ESD and BAS. As for whether a single currency is better or multi-currency is better, there are many debates. I personally feel that it is a bit premature to make a judgment before passing the test of time. There are relatively few players on the current track, so I bet on both.
At present, the most important thing for ESD and BAS is to find a use case to support his current volume and future development. In the past few days, we can see a large number of imitation disks using ESD and BAC, which has increased the demand for everyone to use. In the next step, LP trading pairs based on ESD and BAC, mortgages, and other peripheral tools will be launched and continue to realise market value. As the real usage rate increases, the market value will continue to increase.
About bubbles
My personal investment covers real estate, stocks and coins. I have fully experienced the 2008 financial crisis and the 2 big bull markets in A shares.
What I want to say is that every time a revolution comes, there will be a huge bubble, and many people will make money at an incredible speed. Only bubbles can attract capital and talents can quickly enter this industry. There are many smart and brave people who embraced the bubble and gained huge wealth. Many people chose to stay away from the bubble and gained wisdom.
The industry has developed to this day and has been running blindfolded. Until now, everyone discovered that 70-80% of the entire industry is built on the very unstable foundation of USDT. Everyone knows that the collapse of USDT is only a matter of time. Many people want to use the same method to solve this problem, but it is difficult for you to use the same method to beat the opponent. It must be dimensionality reduction. I personally believe that decentralized stablecoins are the future and the general trend. This is a track that costs tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars. It is worth our heavy position and keep betting.
Bruce (guest)
Hello, everyone, I am Bruce from Tinder Community. I was a blockchain VC analyst before and participated in Internet project financing.
I mainly want to talk about mining strategies, especially Basis. I am interested in algorithmic stablecoins and making money on AMPL. At the beginning of this wave, I paid attention to ESD DSD etc. a bit late
Thanks to Bill for sharing. After reading his Twitter, I quickly realized that this wave can work. Before the appearance of Basis, I also thought it was a bit of an order, but Basis was different. I basically figured it out on the 14th, and wrote on Twitter on the 15th. A lot of what I wanted to say was already written on the 15th.
New changes
For an algorithmic stablecoin to succeed, it must meet three points: stability, decentralization, and wealth.
Let’s look at ESD, etc., the unity of stock and currency. What everyone wants is pledge rather than use. This high volatility is a good speculation target.
But Basis split, we see: Bac was underwater for the first time, fell below 0.9 and quickly pulled back, and now the premium is only around 20%. Compared with other currencies underwater for a long time, Basis has not even seen BAB.
Why there is no underwater, why there is no BAB, the reason is simple, the supply of BAC is less than demand. In the future, if the supply of BAC exceeds demand, its volatility will drop and remain stable. The benefits of BAS satisfy those who want to get rich.
With regard to decentralization, in the future, by merging the BAS pool and Boardroom, sufficient liquidity will be provided for BAS trading, and decentralization will be achieved through high volatility. But high volatility is not a risk in itself.
In the long run, BAS will gradually flow from speculators to Holder. BAC underwater is a mining machine with a price lower than the cost. A lot of money is bought in to reduce the supply. The BAB is first-come, first-served, rushing to redeem, further reducing supply. Long-term investors will buy the bottom of BAS when the BAC is under water, increase the price, and maintain the stability of the BAS price, or bottoming.
Mining strategy
80% of my funds are allocated in BAS BAC, 20% in DSD, and no other imitations. The logic is a barbell strategy, one end with large funds allocates Basis, and the other end with small funds allocates DSD with high risk
I have a vague way of judging the good points of BAS: look at the market value comparison of BAS and BAC. If the market value of BAS is less than or close to BAC, it is suitable for buying. The greater the deviation, the better for heavy positions. If the market value of BAS is greater than BAC and the deviation is too large, it is not suitable to buy in the short term, but it is not recommended to sell your own BAS. Because if BAC’s mining revenue attracts funds, the additional issuance of BAC will keep up with the market value of BAS.
Today, everyone played the imitating disk very well. I have limited energy. I feel that there is no consensus on the imitating disk, and I cannot judge some hidden traps.
Future trends and development
Some people say that the algorithmic stablecoin is a zero-sum game, and I think that Basis is a non-zero-sum game. When there is a negative spiral, there will be people buying bottoms to maintain price stability.
I think the current algorithmic stablecoin is DeFi in June, and the higher level of competition has just begun. Mainstream prejudice is very big. It is best for you to think rationally and independently. Don’t take it for granted that it’s just a game. Don’t be disturbed by excessive information. If you are very impetuous, it is recommended to go for a walk and breathe in the cold air.
When BAC achieves unsecured price stability, there must be pioneers to use it. At that time, it was the curvature engine. The entire encryption ecosystem was the driving force of Basis, achieving the speed of light development.
This may be the first time in human history that an algorithmic central bank has been implemented to achieve decentralized and stable currency issuance. Let the market determine the supply of currency, and always automatically match market demand. In the future, everyone will put aside the old mortgage stablecoins and use advanced algorithm stablecoins.
Finally, I want to say that let’s share it with other partners who don’t know. It’s a little more peaceful and not too aggressive.
xy (guest)
Hello everyone, I am xy, let me share these three topics next!
New changes in algorithmic stablecoins:
I just saw Bill’s sharing in three stages, and I agree very much. In the first stage, AMPL provides a long-term vitality. Its Rebase method is very violent and single. Although it did not eventually form a leading stablecoin project, it did make a good start for algorithmic stablecoins. , There is a stablecoin project that is now recognized by more people.
I think both Basis and ESD are second-stage projects. The currency price of ESD is relatively stable, and it has also been recognized by core DeFi ecological projects such as AAVE. Basis is in a period of rapid development. If BAC is to enter the external ecological expansion, it will take time. But the most exciting thing is that the successful cold start of Basis has also brought a very good rate of return, and has brought a wave of enthusiasm for algorithmic stablecoin investors.
Let’s talk about the DSD project. It is an algorithm currency, but for now, the time setting for its ecological expansion is still at an excessively fluctuating frequency. Compared with DSD, ESD is a relatively healthy regulation rhythm. The regulation rhythm of DSD is not at a stable stage, and the structure of the two communities is not the same.
In the third stage, in my personal opinion, a more respectable direction is FRAX and ESD2.0, including Basis2.0, which is also working on a more healthy and stable stablecoin product solution. For example, the method of turning Rebasecoin into a Rebase pledge rate is an ideal method. Although it may not bring you a more dramatic development cycle like ESD or Basis, I think this method is relatively healthy. .
Both ESD2.0 and Basis2.0 are doing something similar to FRAX, and they got a better cold start through the second phase. In a relatively short period of time, it has a large market value and a very good community. The current development of FRAX is not as fast as ESD and Basis. This is also a different approach, but I think in the end they will all end up in different ways, and I think they will all end up towards a more convergent solution.
Mining strategy and experience
I paid attention to this kind of project and spent some time to research it, and I was attracted by its scheme and model. After most people are exposed to new things, they will not have a more fundamental value investment consensus in the early stage like Jayson and Bruce. My suggestion is to understand how to participate before choosing the method of participation. An obvious advantage of algorithmic stablecoins is that their data is all on the chain and can be checked. If we treat him as an investment target, there are fundamentals to see. For example, through the data analysis on the official website, we can calculate the number and total amount of Redeem this time, how much the price of ESD in the stable currency needs to rise, can Redeem drop coupons, Redeem drop all coupons, whether there is more room And time, when you figure this out, it becomes easier to play.
For other wild mines and new imitation disks, my personal opinion is to seek stability. Use consensus stablecoins (such as ESD, Basis stablecoins) to mine, try not to mine the second pool, mining the second pool is equivalent to short-term, then it is best to watch the market, do not take it lightly, I am not a short-term It’s not recommended to watch the stock, these are two different ways. If you want to be stable, the single currency stable currency is put in for mining. The above are some risk tips.
Future trends and development
We divide this topic into two different directions. The first level is the development of ecology. At present, among these algorithmic stablecoin projects, ESD is the fastest. We see that the ESD community has a group of very energetic people, they are crazy together. Currently, the projects in the DEFI ecosystem that support ESD as a financing asset are also the most and most recognized assets. Secondly, I think an asset that is easier to accept may be FRAX, because FRAX is relatively more in line with the definition of stable currency.
Basis, why should I rank it third? Of course, the plan is very good, but he is still in a relatively accelerated cold start stage, it has not yet completed the cold start of the fundamentals, and the currency price is relatively crazy and fierce. Therefore, it is better for us to regard Basis as a speculation or investment target. If you want to participate more deeply, you can be a contributor to its core community and make some contributions to it, and you can get some better returns.
Algorithmic stablecoins are more exciting. I also said in another sharing. I think its emergence is inevitable, and even its significance as an asset can be used as an idea on par with BTC and ETH. He is The native encrypted assets that only appear in the field of blockchain directly point to the financing, lending, and currency issuance methods of the traditional financial world.
Through some simple mathematical models, the traditional financial world, which consumes huge amounts of financing and currency distribution, has been completed with quite high efficiency. I do not intend to treat him as an experiment. It will definitely have a real impact on the financial structure. What we see now is only the tip of the iceberg. This is my view on algorithmic stablecoins.
Chen Mo (guest)
Hello everyone! I am Chen Mo, from the Bitouq community. Thank you for the invitation of Tinder Research Institute to discuss learning algorithmic stablecoins with you. Personal views are not financial suggestions, only for learning and communication!
The previous great gods have already made a detailed analysis of the development history of algorithmic stablecoins and product iterations. I will not repeat them here. In order to save time, let me briefly summarize the three topics together:
Since the development of algorithmic stablecoins, I think the whole pattern has basically taken shape, that is, Basis and ESD are the main markets. So there have been a lot of “imitation disks” recently. In fact, everyone should have expected such changes. Refer to the early liquidity mining of DEFI, it also started from layer by layer dolls. Most of the imitation disks appeared. Will choose the currency of the leading product for matryoshka, in fact, this method not only generates competition to some extent, but also stimulates the development of top-level products. This is the current situation in the entire market.
For the current investment strategy, the early benefits of imitation will definitely be more impressive, but it should be noted to prevent being deceived and fancy cutting leek routines. For such products, I still prefer the method of no pre-digging and no reservation. As well as the neutral setting of the rebase time period, the speed can be increased but not too fast. For the two major “main market”, what needs attention is the high volatility of the equity currency and the lock-up time of the lock-up mechanism.
Last but not least, if you don’t understand Rebase, don’t enter the market! Because this is not a game that you can copy, do your homework yourself, otherwise you will die miserably. The future development trend, my personal understanding, the current investors of algorithmic stable currency products are divided into two categories:
The first category is that although I don’t believe that algorithmic stablecoins can really be “stable”, they are willing to invest in early high-yield, or speculate.
The second category is long-term optimism that algorithmic stablecoins can be used as stablecoins in the future.
As far as the existing product types are concerned, ESD has the characteristics of locking liquidity and is more speculative. Basis separates equity coins from circulating coins, which makes it easier to break through in application scenarios. The stablecoin mining mechanism based on Basis is the fairest and lowest risk option, which is also a point verified by the market. For users with low risk appetite, direct selling by prostitutes is the lowest risk option. Those who have a good understanding of the whole mechanism and have risk tolerance, continue to enter the 2 pool and 3 pool. No matter what kind of supporter, I think it is helpful to the future of algorithmic stablecoins. The specific future development of this is created and determined by us and the market together.
Cao Yin (guest)
Hello everyone, this is Cao Yin. I joined Amber in 2015, when I was still working in China Cinda!
In April 2015, I took the initiative to propose to the leader to establish a blockchain business unit, and became the first blockchain technology analyst in a state-owned financial institution in China at that time. Later, I took the lead and participated in the districts of relevant departments in many countries. He also wrote several books on blockchain topics and plans.
I should be regarded as one of the first people in China to start investing and using DeFi. In 2017, I invested in the Loopring Agreement, the earliest and most successful DeFi project in China, and I have been writing DeFi-related articles. Then I started All in DeFi in 2019. Investing in DeFi projects, and also incubating DeFi projects in depth, such as the jewel in the crown of Polkadot. Acala.Network, as well as YFII, the most active DeFi community project in China that has been listed on Coinbase Custody.
Next, I will talk about why I think the track of algorithmic stablecoins is bound to succeed.
In the process of investing and researching DeFi, especially when I was involved in the design of Acala products in the early days, I deeply realized that although the current DeFi world is developing rapidly and the ecology is becoming more and more mature, it is precisely the lack of a mature financial system that is most important The cornerstone: pure currency.
Now our DeFi world uses two types of assets as currency, 1. USDT, USDC and other fiat-backed centralized stablecoins; 2. DAI, over-collateralized decentralized stablecoins, fiat-backed centralized stablecoins are The most unreliable, Tether has been targeted by the SEC for a long time, and USDC can freeze user accounts at any time, and DAI, an over-collateralized stablecoin, not only has the problem of low asset utilization, but more importantly, the over-collateralized stablecoin From the perspective of the evolution of currency history, it is only one of the historical forms of currency.
The Chinese call for currencies is relatively uniform, and they are all called currencies, but the forms of currencies in different periods in English have left different titles, such as Bank Note and Fiat Currency.
Pledged stablecoins are actually Bank Note, similar to ancient Chinese silver notes, and algorithmic stablecoins are more modern Fiat Currency, but supply and demand are not regulated by the central bank, but by the mechanism of algorithmic stablecoins based on the money market supply and demand. Automatic adjustment.
You can regard the expansion and stability adjustment mechanism of the algorithmic stablecoin as a precision-designed machine. At present, the expansion of this machine is driven by human greed. In the future, when the algorithmic stablecoin market matures, the scale is large enough and there are After a large number of DeFi applications based on algorithmic stablecoins, it is the arbitrage demand from professional institutions that drives this machine to achieve stability.
This is just like the development of Uniswap. There are now a large number of professional investors on Uniswap who are doing brick-and-mortar arbitrage among centralized exchanges in order to achieve the price level of decentralized trading pairs on Uniswap. In the early days, the price of Uniswap followed the centralized exchange, and now many token price pricing hubs have actually been transferred from exchanges to Uniswap, and the migration of this pricing hub was actually realized in just one year.
However, there is no conflict between algorithmic stablecoins and mortgage-type stablecoins such as Dai. Even now, the currency issuance of central banks is based on the dual model of national credit + reserve assets, but mortgage-type stablecoins have a clear ceiling. It is the market value of collateral that can be mortgaged. However, it is still far from the ceiling at present, and the market value bottleneck will be encountered after a 100-fold increase, and the mortgage stable currency is actually a kind of debt, similar to treasury bills and various commercial papers. The algorithmic stable currency is a purer currency and an asset. Therefore, the attributes of the two are different, so there is a reason for their existence at the same time, and the future development direction of the two will be different. The mortgage stable currency will continue to expand the scope of mortgage assets, especially in the direction of physical assets. For example, Maker recently launched a plan to issue DAI for real estate mortgage financing. The algorithmic stable currency will continue to expand as the real native currency of the DeFi world with the needs of the cryptocurrency market.
Finally, I will talk about some of my thoughts after studying various algorithmic stablecoin mechanisms:
How to design a better algorithmic stablecoin mechanism, taking into account expansion and stability.
1. Must stay away from equilibrium
The so-called staying away from equilibrium is actually to find a way to encourage the exchange of energy and material between the algorithmic stablecoin system and the external system, that is, to amplify the transaction volume and expand the scale of the asset portfolio with other DeFi protocols.
At present, the indicators for evaluating the algorithmic stablecoin system are very immature. In addition to Market Cap and TVL, transaction data should also be introduced. Personally, transaction data is even more important than TVL. Some algorithmic stablecoin projects, such as the second-generation algorithmic stablecoin ESD, deliberately designed a lock-up distribution system, which seems to reduce the selling pressure and increase the price stability of ESD, but this artificial lock-up stability actually limits the trading volume of ESD and even increases the entropy of the entire system. , Is the practice of sacrificing the last. In contrast, the third-generation algorithmic stable currency Basis without lock-up, Basis’s BAC is smaller than ESD, the transaction volume is significantly larger than ESD, which also makes the scale and stability of BAC will inevitably exceed ESD in the future.
2. Increase the number of internal subsystems of stablecoins and give birth to a “self-organizing system”
由于算法稳定币的Rebase 机制，代币价格以及代币流通余额，同代币投资者的投机偏好之间存在着很强的反身性，再者由于投资者的认知和信息的不完备性，造成了算法稳定币的原生随机性。通过算法稳定币的子系统之间的动力学机制，放大并引导这种随机性背后单个投资者的布朗运动，催生有意义的突变，产生「涌现复杂性」（emergent complexity）或者说「自组织系统」（self-organizing system）
因此，可以说，单系统的算法稳定币必定无法稳定和有序，而内部子系统越多的算法稳定币，越有可能实现稳定性和有序性。早期的算法稳定币，比如Ampl，Yam 等，是单币种单系统的算法稳定币，根本不存在系统间相互作用，没有强壮性，无法摆脱的单向死亡螺旋，除非市场外部环境趋势性变化。
第二代算法稳定币ESD 增加了Coupon 代币，发挥了类似债券的角色，但是Coupon 的有效期只有三十天，只能算是0.5 个子系统。第三代算法稳定币Basis.Cash 是目前子系统最多，以及子系统间动力学机制设计最为先进的算法稳定币，也是最有望通过内部子系统随机相互作用实现「系统自组织」的算法稳定币。
Basis Cash 有三个子系统：BAC，BAS，BAB，BAC 是对标美元的稳定币，BAS 则是拥有治理权权和分红权的股票，而BAB 则对标央行债券，这三个子系统相对完整的抽象复刻了现行央行货币政策动力学系统，从目前来看，堪称所有算法稳定币动力学系统中，最有可能实现有序自组织的设计。
3. 有意加剧算法稳定币的波动性，实现价格锚定和余额扩展
在项目前期，不用担心算法稳定币价格的不稳定，只要交易量在放大，价格的波动涨落反而是促使算法稳定币在更高能级上实现有序的重要手段。当然，前提条件是算法稳定币系统内存在形成有序结构的内在条件，如果像AMPL 这样不存在有序结构的系统，即使AMPL 价格波动上天入地，也永远不会实现有序，而Basis.Cash 这样存在内在有序结构的项目，才能够在代币的价格波动中，实现向锚定价格的最终收敛。
但价格收敛仅仅是算法稳定币的目标之一，算法稳定币的市值也很重要，要实现高能级情况下的币值锚定。这就应该加剧算法稳定币的价格波动，而不是限制波动，然后在有序结构下，通过价格涨落，实现价格锚定的收敛，同时实现算法稳定币规模的不断扩张。比较现有算法稳定币项目，只有ESD 和Basis.Cash 具有一定的内在有序结构，而ESD 的锁仓分发机制和Coupon 有效期限人为限制了ESD 的价格波动，其结果就是ESD 要么只能在较低能级上实现价格收敛，要么在较高能级上价格失序崩溃。
而Basis 代币通胀没有锁仓，同时BAB 也不设有效期限，充分拥抱波动, 此外Basis 的债券BAB 的价格=BAC 的平方, 这样的设计在BAC 价格较低时, 可以予以一定支撑, 并巧妙的实现了在通缩时的隐含通胀, 而当BAC 价格回到通胀线以上时,BAB 的机制设计可以兑现隐含通胀, 并放大BAC 的价格波动。
如此设计, 不仅没有限制BAC 的涨落偏差，反而非常巧妙地将通缩时期的偏差置换到了通胀时期，并进行了放大，有助于BAC 在价格随机涨落中能够更快的在通胀线上实现价格收敛，也就是随机涨比随机落更多，这将使BAC 的市值能够保持持续扩展。
最后一点，就是要输入负熵，并且算法稳定币系统外输出熵。这一点我就不展开讲了，展开可能会被人骂，大家可以自己悟一下，为什么要对外输出熵。
最后的最后，总结一下：
1. 算法稳定币将是2021 年最亮的赛道
2. 算法稳定币还会继续迭代，但目前来看最有希望的是Basis.cash
3. 算法稳定币追求的不是稳定，而是有序
4. 拥抱混乱，不要恐惧混乱
超级君（嘉宾）
诸位好，我是超级君，2012 年买币，2013 年开始在圈内创业，从事过挖矿、钱包、交易所等等工作，2018 年成为自由人，探索区块链最前沿的新玩意，从Dapp 时代到DeFi 时代。
开篇明旨，我认为算法稳定币赛道是除了比特币、以太坊之外的第三条大赛道，具体曹老师和Bill 已经讲得很清楚了。
根据过往的观点，我认为就是简洁有力的东西，只需要共识的演进。算法稳定币就是这种东西，在目前所有的算法稳定币中，我只看好BAC，其他的我觉得都有缺点，所以我自己而言，也是挖矿BAC，持有BAS，其他的都没有，仿盘没任何意义，DeFi 世界奖励原创者。
刚才曹老师的分析很受益，对于各个算法稳定币的分析，和我的观点非常相符，这里不累赘了。我关注点在于算法稳定币的共识演进。共识的演进，并不是逐渐而成的，可能是触发某些黑天鹅事件，在旧秩序崩塌的那刻，突然地扩散，迅速侵占人类的心智。回望过去，比特币和区块链的发展莫过于此。
今年可能成为算法稳定币的爆炸发展起点，可能就和外部的环境有很大的关系，美联储自己随便印钱，那么区块链这边技术已经成熟，所以像算法稳定币这类「地下美联储」的故事就能流传开来，吸引人们的参与，获得大家的认可。
区块链的底层基础已经愈加完善，产品的推动力是接下来算法稳定币进一步发展的方向，目前BAC 其实还没有外拓，纯粹还是在玩发币的游戏，当然现在的外拓也不太可能，毕竟挖矿有日化2% 的收益，可能接下来收益低下去了，生态会有更多BAC 产品的出现，比如借贷、OTC、交易对等等……
总而言之，在我看来，算法稳定币是目前最有想象力的defi 项目，同时也是最需要冒险的领域，我看好这个领域，也已经投资了这个领域。时间关系今天就讲到这里了。
Bruce（MC/嘉宾）
感谢大家的分享，2020 是难忘的一年，见证历史。 明天就是2020 年最后一天了！2021 年，算法稳定币会在DeFi 这个时间加速的世界成长到何等庞大，区块链世界又会产生哪些巨大变局？还真是让人期待啊！
不用高估短期进度，也不可忽视长期趋势，我已经听到了算法稳定币那巨浪的声音，那潮汐的律动。今天的圆桌分享，是先行者的第一波浪潮，未来大家一起乘风破浪！
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