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With this Bitcoin development, here’s what you can expect (www.blockcast.cc)

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Cardano’s traders should expect this if the market falls again (www.blockcast.cc)

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Here’s what to expect from the $1.15 Billion ETH options expiry (www.blockcast.cc)

As the ETH community gears up for the Ethereum Berlin upgrade, the altcoin is trading at $1836 based on price data from CoinMarketCap. ETH’s price is up 2% in the past 24 hours however based on the increasing total value in ETH 2.0’s deposit contract, the circulating supply is expected to drop. A drop in supply could be bullish for the altcoins. This signals a bullish trend reversal in the price rally in the upcoming weeks. However, there is one roadblock that could lead to a price correction, on the 26th of March, $1.15 Billion worth of ETH options are set to expire.

Here's what to expect from the $1.15 Billion ETH options expiry

ETH Options open interest by strike price || Source: Bybt

The current optimism that comes from the increasing deposits in the ETH 2.0 contract and the leveraged trades is likely to drop if the options expiry leads to a drop below the $1600 level. When Ethereum is overleveraged and traders are over-optimistic, traditionally there is a transition in the HODLing pattern and a change of hands before the altcoin rallies towards the ATH. In anticipation of the upcoming Ethereum options expiry, the inflow of ETH to exchanges has dropped, hitting a 1-month low based on data from Glassnode. This drop is instrumental to a shortage of supply and the building bullish narrative.

This could be key to supporting Ethereum’s price at the current level, as a shortage offers needed support to the $1800 level. Additionally, DeFi tokens are bouncing back to the 2020 level and ETH’s TVL in DeFi has increased over 8% in 30 days. This is a relatively high TVL growth in the past 90 days. This is a bullish sign for Ethereum’s price rally, at a time when LINK, UNI, COMP are offering close to 10% in less than 24 hours. DeFi tokens with increasing market capitalization and volatility are contributing to the increase in Ethereum’s price and trade volume.

Here's what to expect from the $1.15 Billion ETH options expiry

ETH locked in DeFi || Source: Defipulse

The upcoming options expiry could lead to a significant correction and the price may drop below $1600, however, it is expected that once Bitcoin starts trading sideways (ETH and BTC are highly correlated at this point in the market cycle, over 80%) altcoins may start rallying again, led by DeFi tokens and ETH may hit new ATH in the following weeks. However, the immediate impact of the $1.5 Billion options expiry on spot exchanges could be a drop in price and open a buying opportunity for retail traders, before hitting the previous ATH.


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Bitcoin on Back Foot as Focus Turns to Powell Speech; What to Expect? (www.blockcast.cc)

Bitcoin dropped during Asia-Pacific and European trade Thursday as rising bond yields prompted concerns that central banks may begin tightening monetary policies sooner-than-expected.

The benchmark cryptocurrency fell up to 3.59 percent to $48,562, extending its decline after setting up a week-to-date high level at $52,666 in the previous session. Elsewhere in the crypto market, high-cap tokens including Ethereum, Cardano, Binance Coin, and others also plunged lower under Bitcoin’s influence, pointing to coordinate selling by daytraders to secure short-term gains.

Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, BTCUSD, BTCUSDTBitcoin, cryptocurrency, BTCUSD, BTCUSDT
Bitcoin sells off at levels above $52,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Powell Speech Ahead

A recent sell-off in government bonds has lifted Treasury yields, reducing investors’ appetite for Bitcoin that has soared in an ultralow interest rate environment.

Some money managers are betting that additional coronavirus stimulus in the US would boost inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policies, beginning with a spike in its benchmark rates. That also pushed the real yields higher, which reflects the return on bonds after adjusting them for inflation expectations.

Bitcoin has become a reactive asset as uncertainty looms over the bonds market. The cryptocurrency wobbled rose one day to pare gains in the next session, and so on. And now, a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell headlines the economic outlook. His views on the recent jump in yields at the Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit on Thursday at 12:05 ET would provide further cues to the Bitcoin market on which direction it should take next.

However, it seems unlikely Mr. Powell would taper the Fed’s monetary policy measures, which include the purchasing of government debts and mortgage securities at the pace of $120 billion per month. The chairman has previously stated that the economy is still far from achieving its maximum employment and higher inflation goals.

On the other hand, any mention of imposing yield curve control (YCC) or boosting the Fed’s bond-buying program could boost government debt costs, pushing yields on them lower. That could prove bullish for Bitcoin and the US stock market.

Bitcoin Meets Corporates

More bullish tailwinds could come from corporates’ growing interest in Bitcoin as an alternative store of value. Yields, though rising, remain far lower than their historically higher levels above 14 percent. That could allow companies to move a portion of their cash/bond reserves to Bitcoin.

“The latest survey I saw showed that 5 percent of the public-traded companies in the US would consider adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets,” said Magentic managing director William E. Quigley in an interview with CNN Business.

“And the reason they are thinking that is that corporates have trillions of dollars in cash—and where do they put it? There are government bonds but $17 trillion of them yield negative returns,” he added.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note plunged modestly to 1.464 percent on Thursday after jumping to 1.469 percent in the previous session. It was 0.915 percent at the year’s beginning. Yields rise when bond prices fall.

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Binance Coin (BNB) fights for $250: Here’s what to expect (www.blockcast.cc)

Binance Coin (BNB) has, after spending a week in retracement mode, finally made a move towards the upside. So, what caused BNB to surge over 20% on the day, and should you consider investing in BNB now?

Fundamental analysis: Binance Smart Chain performance pushes BNB up

With Binance Smart Chain (BSC) becoming increasingly popular as a DeFi-hosting platform in recent weeks, BNB (its underlying token) has experienced several massive jumps in price. Since any performance of the BSC is correlated with how people perceive and value BNB, it’s safe to say that Binance Coin’s fundamentals are improving every single day.

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Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of Binance, posted a tweet that shows BSC’s transaction volume. He pointed out that BSC is currently sustaining 2x the daily transaction volume of Ethereum. On the other hand, he stated that the BNB token is not even close to being as valued as Ether:

However, a good counterpoint to CZ’s statement was made, which said that one of the reasons BNB isn’t as valued is its availability. Binance Coin is only available on the Binance exchange, while Ether is available on every major exchange.

BNB posted week-over-week losses of 7.35%, outperforming both BTC‘s week-over-week loss of 9.08% and ETH‘s 12.51% loss. Binance Coin is currently the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, boasting a value of $37.88 billion.

At the time of writing, BNB is trading for $245, which represents a price increase of 206.59% when compared to the previous month’s value.

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BNB/USD technical analysis: BNB gains 22% on the day but fails to break the 50% Fib retracement level

Binance Coin has, after reaching its all-time high of $368.29, entered a retracement mode that lasted for over a week. After nine days, this retracement might be broken after BNB managed to find strong support on the 21-hour EMA. However, this might just be enough to propel its price back to its recent highs.

The other reason for BNB’s current push was the overall cryptocurrency market performance, which further invigorated BNB bulls. However, BNB’s 22% daily gain might be coming to an end as the cryptocurrency couldn’t pass the 50% Fib retracement level of $246.12.

While Binance Coin’s overall outlook would look extremely bullish only under the condition that the cryptocurrency closes the daily candle above the 50% Fib retracement level, it can still remain slightly bullish as long as is stays above the previous downtrend.

BNB/USD daily chart

BNB/USD daily chart

BNB/USD daily chart

BNB’s RSI on the daily time-frame has stopped its descending move and started moving towards the overbought territory. Its current value is sitting at 60.67.

BNB/USD 1-hour chart

BNB/USD 1-hour chart

BNB/USD 1-hour chart

Zooming in to the hourly time-frame, we can see that BNB created a descending trend through which it moved ever since 24 February. However, today’s push up managed to break above the descending resistance line, and BNB rushed towards $250. While BNB managed to establish its presence above the descending line, it failed to pass the $250 mark.

BNB is currently pulling back after failing to break the $250 level, with the 21-hour, 50-hour, and the zone around $225 being its first support levels.

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Cardano (ADA) pushes towards its all-time high: Here’s what to expect (www.blockcast.cc)

Cardano’s price managed to break the $1 mark with confidence after a period of volatility. This, along with the Mary upgrade, has pushed the price up past the $1.10 mark. So, what should you expect next, and should you invest in ADA now?

Fundamental analysis: Mary upgrade sends ADA above $1.10

Cardano’s overall market outlook has been heavily tilted to the positive lately, especially with the progress the Foundation made towards launching its Goguen (smart contract-enabling) upgrade. On top of that, the Mary upgrade launched on the Cardano mainnet today, causing a slight price increase.

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However, Cardano’s long-term outlook has been potentially compromised as Binance Smart Chain (another competitor to Ethereum) received a lot of attention lately, and even made it to the third spot in the market cap top10 with its native token, BNB coin.

ADA posted week-over-week gains of 22.23%, outperforming both BTC‘s week-over-week loss of 4.43% and ETH‘s 17.52% loss. Cardano is currently the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, boasting a value of $35.30 billion.

At the time of writing, ADA is trading for $1.113, which represents a price increase of 157.20% when compared to the previous month’s value.

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ADA/USD technical analysis: Cardano traders liquidated after a flash crash on Kraken, who is responsible?

Cardano has entered a three-day retracement phase after hitting an all-time high of $1.198. However, the cryptocurrency left this phase after finding support with the 23.6% Fib retracement level of $0.955. With its price increasing by close to 20%, with the daily candle closing above the $1 mark, ADA was ready to end its consolidation and push up.

ADA managed to push its price past the $1.12 level and enter the major resistance area. If it manages to pass this zone, it will reenter the price discovery mode. However, if it fails to do so, its nearest support level is the 21-day EMA, which will soon catch up to the 23.6% Fib retracement level.

ADA/USD daily chart

ADA/USD daily chart

ADA/USD daily chart

It’s also important to note that the large price drop to the $0.156 level was exclusive to the Kraken exchange, and that it happened because of a connectivity exchange. This caused numerous traders to get liquidated, and prices of Ethereum and Cardano to experience a flash crash.

After a brief investigation, Kraken announced that its servers worked just fine, even though they did admit to suffering from connectivity issues.

ADA’s RSI on the daily time-frame has been trending up in the last two days, with its value just entering the overbought territory. Its current value is sitting at 73.44.

ADA/USD 1-hour chart

ADA/USD 1-hour chart

ADA/USD 1-hour chart

Zooming in to the hourly time-frame, we can see that Cardano took the majority of the day to consolidate and trade sideways on slightly descending volume. While its immediate downside is well-protected by the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs, its first big support level is the 23.6% Fib retracement level of $0.955.

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Polkadot (DOT) pushing past $30: Here’s what to expect (www.blockcast.cc)

Despite most top cryptocurrencies ending up in the red today, Polkadot (DOT) stayed strong and even made slight gains. What’s the reason behind the price stability, and should you buy some DOT now?

Fundamental analysis: stellar fundamentals keep DOT stable

Polkadot is one of the cryptocurrencies (alongside Cardano) that many people consider is a direct competition to Ethereum and its utility as a platform. Polkadot was founded by the Web3 Foundation, a Switzerland-based Foundation created to facilitate a fully functional, user-friendly, decentralized, and open-source platform.

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Its founders are Dr. Gavin Wood, Peter Czaban and Robert Habermeier.

The Polkadot protocol aims to connect public and private chains, oracles, permissionless networks, and future technologies, allowing all of them independent blockchains to share information and transactions without ever needing to “trust” each other.

Polkadot’s current market stability can be attributed to its stellar fundamentals, as well as to the market “catching up” to Cardano’s recent gains.

DOT posted week-over-week gains of 30.38%, outperforming both Bitcoin’s 4.37% gain and Ethereum‘s 0.55% gain. Polkadot is currently the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, and currently boasts a market value of $27.31billion.

At the time of writing, DOT is trading for $30, which represents a price increase of 75.42% when compared to the previous month’s value.

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DOT/USD technical analysis: DOT’s uptrend continues on strong fundamentals

Polkadot’s steady rise in both volume and price has everything to do with its fundamentals, but its technicals are there to support any price movement as well. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is steadily pushing towards the upside and slowly approaching its all-time high of $50.

DOT’s current price movement will most likely lead to the cryptocurrency contesting the $31.33 level once again. In this case, we could call the aforementioned level a pivot point, where a confident break above it would mean a push towards $34 or above. However, failing to break it would most likely mean returning to the $25.75 level, or even contesting the 21-day EMA.

DOT/USD daily chart

DOT/USD daily chart

DOT/USD daily chart

DOT’s RSI on the daily time-frame has been in the overbought territory for a week now, with its current value sitting at 76.19.

DOT/USD 1-hour chart

DOT/USD 1-hour chart

DOT/USD 1-hour chart

Zooming in to the hourly time-frame, we can see DOT’s is quite stable between the $25.75 support and $31.33 resistance levels. On top of that, the 21-hour and 50-hour EMAs play a major role in DOT’s price action, with the 21-hour EMA currently acting as immediate support, and pushing the cryptocurrency up.

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JPMorgan “Do not expect to bet on Bitcoin like Tesla” (www.blockcast.cc)

Big bank JPMorgan evaluated that the US, Inc., is not bold enough to follow Tesla’s bitcoin investment. Although Tesla has been leading the way to disclose its Bitcoin investment and payment policies, he said, don’t expect that there will be a big company in the U.S. who will follow Tesla right away.

According to Bloomberg on the 10th, strategists in JPMorgan pointed out in their report that “the biggest issue in the question of whether major corporate financial officers will follow Tesla is the volatility of Bitcoin.” It is difficult for American companies to act like Tesla right away because the risk of putting bitcoin, which has a huge fluctuation in price, into corporate assets is so great.

Most of a company’s financial portfolio is filled with bank deposits, money market funds, and short-term bonds, with an average annual fluctuation of less than 1%. On the other hand, Bitcoin has an average fluctuation of 5.2% per day, and an annual average of 80%. “Even if only 1% of corporate assets are allocated to Bitcoin, the volatility of the entire portfolio will skyrocket to 8%,” JPMorgan said.

However, Bitcoin investors are pouring out a rosy prospect that this cryptocurrency will become the mainstream market-leading in the periphery like Tesla. Michael Novogratz, founder of cryptocurrency asset manager Galaxy Digital, was optimistic that if more companies were like Tesla, Bitcoin could soar to $10 at the end of this year. His outlook is twice that of the current market price (about $46,200).

JPMorgan said, “Tesla could raise the price of bitcoin in the short term,” but predicted that “how long the bitcoin rally will last will depend on the less speculative’institutional’ fund flow.” It is explained that it depends on how institutions such as the’Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’, the world’s largest Bitcoin indirect investment product, operate.

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Should you expect a Bitcoin supply shock? (www.blockcast.cc)

With Bitcoin trading above $23,000 emerging to become the new normal, institutions and Bitcoin whales are driving price discovery into previously unchartered territories on the price charts. This doesn’t come as a shock to maxis and on-chain analysts, however, with Willy Woo recently quoted as saying,

“$100,000, I would rate as very conservative, probably overly conservative. I would rate $200,000 upwards as a sweet spot. $300,000 not out of the question, and I do not ridicule $1,000,000.”

According to Willy Woo, there is potential for a supply shock with more and more institutional buyers entering the market. It is critical for retail traders to identify when and where in Bitcoin’s market cycle, institutions took the reins of Bitcoin’s price and more importantly, supply on spot exchanges.

Looking at Bitcoin’s price chart, back in 2018 or 2019, technical analysts or traders couldn’t have seen through it, unless they studied institutionalization and its implications on price discovery. Ideally, they wouldn’t know the difference between a bull and a bear market, before riding through it, since the chart has been choppy for most of 2020.

In fact, in 2019, there was a cliff on Bitcoin’s price chart, one where the price dropped from $6000 to $3000, a development that marked the start of the year. Around this bottom, Bitcoin changed hands several times, or how crypto-Twitter likes to put it- “weak hands were shaken out.”

Should you expect a Bitcoin Supply shock?

Bitcoin’s Price Chart || Source: Coinmarketcap

Based on data from CoinMarketCap and the price chart attached herein, there was a notable discrepancy between investor expectations and the daily price on spot exchanges for most of 2018 and 2019.

In 2019, when the price climbed up from $4000 to $14000, it could be directly attributed to the investment flow from institutions, according to Willy Woo. If retail traders kept an eye out for the change in hands and the rapid acquisition of Bitcoin by institutions like Grayscale, the 2020 bull run would have been better received. The current sell walls on exchanges like Binance and Huobi are indicative of a 5Y-7Y old supply that is now active.

Rather than supporting further price discovery and driving demand, more retail traders are dropping out of the network. This may be a momentary or a strategic move, however, this is sure to have an impact on Bitcoin’s supply distribution. The remainder of the 2.5 million Bitcoins may directly get acquired by institutions as the price is discovered beyond $23,500.

If supply is controlled by institutions, a sell-off would have a direct impact on spot exchange prices, and a supply shock could possibly shake further weak hands out. 

The institutionalization that has led to the 2020 phase, and has blown up the top, has changed the direction of investment flows, especially since there are less than 100 million people in crypto and much fewer institutions. However, the growth isn’t natural or symmetric when looking at the chart since a lot of buying happened around the flood of Ponzi schemes back in 2017.

Though Ponzi schemes may have done more harm than good to Bitcoin’s reputation and mainstream adoption, it is interesting to note how Ponzi schemes and failed ICOs have been critical to the present price rally and institutionalization. 

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Bitcoin Futures Funding Gets “Aggressively Bearish” as Traders Expect a Retrace (www.blockcast.cc)

Bitcoin has been caught in the throes of an immense bullish trend throughout the past several days, with buyers in full control of its price action as the cryptocurrency puts some serious distance between its recent lows.

It is important to note that the recent rejection at $23,700 proved to be quite significant for the cryptocurrency, as its price has been sliding lower ever since.

One trader is now noting that where it trends in the mid-term should depend largely, if not entirely, on whether or not bulls can maintain their momentum and build strong support throughout the lower-$20,000 region.

Any sustained dip below $20,000 would be dire for the crypto and potentially cause it to see strong mid-term downside.

One trader is now noting that Bitcoin is beginning to flash some signs of weakness on its chart, however, he notes that its macro strength and recent break above its all-time highs may give room for it to see further upside.

He also notes that futures funding has been growing “aggressively bearish-biased” over the past several hours, which could be a grim sign.

Bitcoin Struggles to Extend Momentum as Consolidation Begins 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just under 1% at its current price of $22,670. This is around the price at which it has been trading throughout the past few days.

Yesterday the crypto rallied as high as $23,700 before it lost its momentum and slid lower. The selling pressure at this price region was significant, signaling that its rally was over-heated.

Today’s price action has mainly consisted of consolidation, and it does seem to be poised to break back above $23,000 in the near-term.

BTC Futures Funding is Bear-Biased as Chart Shows Signs of Weakness

One trader stated in a recent tweet that Bitcoin’s chart is flashing some signs of bearishness, although he believes that its macro strength will be enough to negate this and lead it higher.

He also notes that BTC futures funding, across the board, is beginning to show signs of being heavily bear-biased.

“Normally I’d say this looks bearish, but given all the circumstances surrounding BTC right now, I almost think it’s more likely this breaks up than down. Either way, it’s consolidation, and consolidation leads to larger moves… With that said, futures funding across the board is getting aggressively bearish-biased right now.”

Bitcoin

Bitcoin

Image Courtesy of Jonny Moe. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.

Bitcoin’s upcoming weekly candle close should shed some light on the sustainability of this latest leg higher.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.

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